An Assessment of Uncertainties in Climate Modelling at the Regional Scale: The Development of Probabilistic Based Climate Scenarios for Ireland

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Resource or Project Abstract

This report presents an overview of the uncertainties that cascade or propagate through the climate modelling framework - from emissions scenarios to subsequent climate projections. It describes a methodology that has been developed for quantifying such uncertainties at the regional scale. Initially, a methodology adopted from the dynamical modelling community was used to ?pattern scale? previously downscaled emissions scenarios for selected locations in Ireland. This enabled the quantification of projected changes in temperature and precipitation for the end of the present century across four marker emissions scenarios. In order to produce probabilistic-based scenarios of temperature and precipitation for the selected station locations, a Monte Carlo analysis was employed in conjunction with three different estimates of future warming. The projected changes in both temperature and precipitation were found to display a considerable spread in values. For example, winter temperature at one location suggested an increase from between 0.6 and 6.6°C by the 2080s? (2070-2099) period. While the methodology outlined should enable the rapid development of probabilistic climate projections, based on a limited availability of downscaled climate scenarios, caution needs to be expressed in the interpretation of the results outlined in this report. While they provide a basis for assessing the potential risks associated to be quantified, at least one study has illustrated that details of the level of risk are not independent of the methods employed (New et al., 2007).

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Contact Information for This Resource

Dr. Rowan Fealy
National University of Ireland Maynooth (NUIM)

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Offline Print Quality Version    STRIVE_48_Fealy_ClimateModelling_prn.pdf  (4.3 Mb)
Project Report Optimised For Online Viewing    STRIVE_48_Fealy_ClimateModelling_web.pdf  (1.43 Mb)

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Author(s)Fealy, R.
Title Of WebsiteSecure Archive For Environmental Research Data
Publication InformationAn Assessment of Uncertainties in Climate Modelling at the Regional Scale: The Development of Probabilistic Based Climate Scenarios for Ireland
Name of OrganisationEnvironmental Protection Agency Ireland
Electronic Address or URL
Unique Identifier045f5d05-2691-102e-a0a4-f81fb11d7d1c
Date of AccessLast Updated on SAFER: 2024-05-23

An example of this citation in proper usage:

Fealy, R.   "An Assessment of Uncertainties in Climate Modelling at the Regional Scale: The Development of Probabilistic Based Climate Scenarios for Ireland". Associated datasets and digitial information objects connected to this resource are available at: Secure Archive For Environmental Research Data (SAFER) managed by Environmental Protection Agency Ireland (Last Accessed: 2024-05-23)


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Access Information For This Resource

SAFER-Data Display URL
Resource Keywordsprobabilistic-based projections climate scenarios ireland
EPA/ERTDI/STRIVE Project Code2005-FS-33
EPA/ERTDI/STRIVE Project ThemeClimate Change
Resource Availability: Any User Can Download Files From This Resource
Limitations on the use of this ResourceAny 3rd party use of the reports attached here must cite the original authors of the reports - an automated citation is provided.
Number of Attached Files (Publicly and Openly Available for Download): 2
Project Start Date Saturday 1st January 2005 (01-01-2005)
Earliest Recorded Date within any attached datasets or digital objects Saturday 1st January 2005 (01-01-2005)
Most Recent Recorded Date within any attached datasets or digital objects Thursday 1st January 2009 (01-01-2009)
Published on SAFERMonday 11th October 2010 (11-10-2010)
Date of Last EditMonday 11th October 2010 at 15:10:39 (11-10-2010)
Datasets or Files Updated On Monday 11th October 2010 at 15:10:39 (11-10-2010)

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Description of Geographical Characteristics of This Project or Dataset
This research did not collect or generate any new data. It focused on climate model development. Data was used from Ireland. The Appendices in the report outline the exact details of the input data to the models.

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Lineage information about this project or dataset
The approach outlined within this report adopted a technique widely used in the dynamical modelling community: to pattern scale statistically downscaled projections of temperature and precipitation for selected stations for Ireland for the 2080s. The resulting scenarios, scaled to reproduce the warming from the A1FI and B1 emissions scenarios, were then employed in a probabilistic assessment based on three estimates of future changes in global mean surface temperature, according to (i) three GCMs employed in the original statistical downscaling approach of Fealy and Sweeney (2007; 2008a; 2008b); (ii) the estimated transient response of the climate system to a doubling of CO2 at the time of doubling (IPCC, 2007), and (iii) the estimated equilibrium climate sensitivity due to a doubling of CO2 (IPCC, 2007).
Supplementary Information
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